Speculation that the Estonia ferry wreck disaster of 1994 was caused by a surface collision with an unknown vessel or object appears to have been undermined by a new scientific study.
The report, based on advanced computer-modelling, concludes that the severe damage on the starboard side of the 80m-deep wreck was caused by its impact with the seabed, with nothing found to refute the conclusions of the original inquiry.
The ferry sank in heavy seas while crossing the Baltic Sea from Tallinn in Estonia to Stockholm. Next year sees the 30th anniversary of what is regarded as one of the 20th century’s worst maritime tragedies. All but 137 of 989 passengers and crew died onboard on 28 September, 1994.
Sweden, Estonia and Finland agreed an “Estonia Law” the following year to designate the wreck-site as a final resting place that could no longer be disturbed. However, relatives of the dead and survivors of the sinking had remained unconvinced about the initial findings of the countries’ safety investigation authorities.
Their doubt was stoked by a Discovery TV documentary series Estonia – A Find That Changes Everything in 2020. This revealed that there had been a hole in the hull and called into question the inquiry’s conclusion that a defective lock had allowed the sea to wrench open the bow door and the car-deck to flood.
Last September the film-makers were fined for violating the sanctity of the site when they had sent down a ROV and technical divers to film the wreck.
However, following the documentary the law was amended to allow the Estonia to be dived again, and a new investigation opened in 2021. Last June the Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau and Swedish Accident Investigation Board revealed that the damage on the starboard side of the wreck was considerably greater than previously estimated, covering some 240sq m.
The new report is based on computer-modelling commissioned from researchers at Tallinn University of Technology in Estonia. It was a challenging task, according to the lead author of the study, marine structures expert Prof Kristjan Tabri. “It was necessary to develop a method of bringing together two separate scientific disciplines, naval architecture and geology, in one calculation environment,” he says.
“In the context of the Estonia ferry disaster, the modelling of the ship’s contact was the first study of its kind. In the 1990s, the initial phase of the accident was modelled up to the sinking and, in the 2000s, detailed models filled the ship with water, but not to the point of collision with the seabed. Now we’ve reached the very final phase.”
The mid-section of the Estonia wreck is supported by protruding bedrock, while fore and aft it rests on softer clay, but both surfaces caused structural damage, most significantly at the stern and midships. The damage caused by hitting the seabed predicted in the calculations corresponded closely to that on the wreck itself, according to the report, which was presented on 21 September.
“The numerical simulations propose a highly probable scenario of the side damage occurring as a result of the contact between the ship and the seabed,” says Prof Tabri.
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